What does the expansion mean for global geopolitics?
The 15th BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg South Africa from 22-24 August 2023, attended by over 60 heads of state, from Africa, Middle-east, Asia, and South America, concluded with some noteworthy outcomes. Six new members were admitted to the bloc, with many more having shown keen interest to join, as illustrated in the diagram above.
The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), originally established in 2009, was already a group of major emerging economies. The inclusion of Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Argentina, Egypt, and Ethiopia into BRICS will likely have significant implications for the global geopolitical arena. It could potentially expand the influence and reach of the group, altering the balance of power in international relations. This new configuration could impact economic cooperation, trade dynamics, regional stability, and negotiations on global issues.
We take a closer look at the newly configured grouping and analyze its likely intentions and the prospects of its success.
Item No.
Country
Population (millions)
GDP (trillions) (nominal)
GDP Growth (%)
Oil production (‘000s barrels per day)
Exports of Goods ($ billions)
1.
China
1,425
$19,37
5,6%
4,111
$3,594
2.
India
1,428
$3,73
6,1%
737
$453
3.
Brazil
0,216
$2,06
1,7%
3,107
$334
4.
Russia
0,144
$2,08
4,9%
11,202
$532
5.
S. Africa
0,060
$0,407
0,3%
0
$123
6.
Saudi Arabia
0,037
$1,06
1,9%
12,136
$410
7.
Iran
0,089
$0,376
2,5%
3,822
$73
8.
UAE
0,0095
$0,495
3,0%
4,022
$599
9.
Argentina
0,045
$0,641
5,2%
706
$88
10.
Egypt
0,112
$0,477
4,2%
613
$49
11.
Ethiopia
0,126
$0,156
5,8%
0
$3.9
Total
3,691
$30,852
–
40,456
$6,258
2023 Data
The BRICS+ population totals 3,7 billion which represents approximately 46% of Global population, with the rest of the World on 4,3 billion making up the remaining 54%. The BRICS GDP of $30,9 trillion represents 30% of the global total, with the Rest of the World generating $74 trillion in nominal terms. The BRICS 40,4 million barrels of oil production represents 43,1% of global production, with the Rest of the World producing 53,3 million barrels a day. And, on $6,258 billion, the BRICs are exporting 25,1% of global output, versus $18,646 billion for the Rest of the World.
What is the significance of this first round of admissions into the BRICS bloc, which is set to be followed by further recruiting rounds at future BRICS summits? There are up to 40 nations who have declared their intention to join BRICS in future, and among them includes nations like Algeria, Nigeria, Venezuela, DRC and Kazakhstan, all of whom are well endowed with oil, gas and uranium in the case of the latter. Kazakhstan holds the worlds largest deposits of Uranium. In the case of DRC, Cobalt and Copper and the abundance of water resources with significant Hydro power potential.
The BRICS bloc is set to control current and future energy markets with BRICS+ also possessing many of the minerals needed for furture green economies, such as Lithium, Cobalt and Copper found in abundance in countries like Argentina and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The famous quote below by Henry Kissinger encapsulates what may be the intent!
The next stage of the tectonic geopolitical shifts is complete de-dolarization, which we will look into in detail in the next blog. In 1973, the petrodollar system was created through a deal between the US and Saudi Arabia. The countries agreed to price and trade oil in US dollars. With oil standardized in terms of dollars, any country that purchased oil from Saudi Arabia would have to use dollars.
Making the case for regional integration in Africa (creating five fully integrated provinces of the URA by 2030)!
Given Africa’s expansive size and diversity of ethnic groupings and cultures, the best approach for the continent to achieve ultimate unity is to start at a regional level to implement the following bold policies:
Complete elimination of former colonial national borders between member states within each region, with current countries to form new provinces of the regions! The region to elect a governor of the region, with each province having a mayor, as in a federal government system! The AU to become the new national/central government with its Chair to be elected the continents President post 2030! With the political administrative headquarters in Addis Ababa.
Establishment of four financial capitals namely in South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt and Kenya with the central region integrating into the EAC’s financial administration. The integration of the capital markets would be on the four main exchanges in these respective countries ensuring complete regional coverage for West, North, East and Southern regions by 2030.
Single African passport (including visa-free African travel all over Africa)!
Single African currency (to facilitate intra-regional and continental trade), to be implemented by 2030, to be launched on the back of or in parallel with a potential BRICs currency!
Single regional political administration, with a regional Governor born out of the current regional economic blocks (ECOWAS, EAC, SADC, AMU, CEN-SAD etc., with a complete mandate review)! The regional economic blocks seem to have lacked a cohesive and integrated strategy that is driving towards ultimate unification, without some form of political integration. Some see them being exploited by western powers as has been observed in ECOWAS who announced the intention to introduce a single currency the ‘ECO’ by 2020, however various delays have seen this pushed out to 2027. There were also reports that France attempted to hijack the process and take it over to replace the CFA Franc.
The African Regional Economic Communities (RECs) were established as part of the African Union’s efforts to promote regional integration, cooperation, and economic development on the continent. These RECs serve as building blocks for the African Union’s broader goal of achieving African economic integration and unity.
The RECs were established by member states of the African Union and are primarily driven by the respective countries in each region. The establishment of these communities was a gradual process, often involving negotiations, agreements, and collaboration among neighboring countries with shared economic, social, and geographical interests.
Each REC has its own specific history, goals, and structure. Some of the notable RECs include:
Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS): Established in 1975 to promote economic integration and cooperation among West African countries.
East African Community (EAC): Initially established in 1967 but later dissolved, it was revived in 2000 to enhance regional cooperation and integration among East African countries.
Southern African Development Community (SADC): Founded in 1980 to promote economic development, peace, and security in southern Africa.
Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA): Established in 1994 to promote economic integration and development in Eastern and Southern Africa.
Arab Maghreb Union (UMA): Established in 1989 to promote economic and political integration among North African countries. However, it has faced challenges and has not been fully functional.
The establishment and effectiveness of these RECs vary based on political will, economic interests, and the commitment of member states. The African Union plays a role in coordinating and supporting the activities of these RECs to ensure greater continental integration and development.
Africa is commonly divided into five main regions:
Northern Africa: This region includes countries located along the northern coast of Africa, such as Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco.
Western Africa: Encompassing the western part of the continent, this region includes countries like Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, and Mali.
Central Africa: This region is located in the central part of the continent and includes countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Chad.
Eastern Africa: Countries in this region include Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, and Somalia. It covers the eastern coast of the continent.
Southern Africa: This region includes countries in the southernmost part of Africa, like South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Namibia, and Botswana.
These regions are not strict political or geographical divisions, but they help provide a general sense of the different parts of the continent with distinct cultural, historical, and geographical characteristics.
As of September 2021, the approximate population figures for each of Africa’s five main regions are listed below. Keep in mind that these numbers are subject to change over time due to birth rates, migration, and other demographic factors.
Northern Africa: Approximately 200 million people.
Western Africa: Approximately 400 million people.
Central Africa: Approximately 150 million people.
Eastern Africa: Approximately 450 million people.
Southern Africa: Approximately 180 million people.
Please note that these figures are rough estimates and can vary depending on the source and the specific countries included in each region. For the most up-to-date and accurate population data, I recommend referring to recent demographic studies or official census reports.
The main languages spoken in each of Africa’s five main regions:
1. Northern Africa:
Arabic is widely spoken across this region due to historical and cultural ties.
Berber languages are also spoken in areas like Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia.
2. Western Africa:
English and French are the official languages in many countries due to colonial history.
Local languages like Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo, and Wolof are widely spoken.
3. Central Africa:
French is commonly spoken due to colonial history in countries like Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, and Central African Republic.
Local languages like Lingala, Kikongo, and Swahili are also prevalent.
4. Eastern Africa:
Swahili is a widely spoken lingua franca in this region, used in countries like Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.
Amharic is the official language of Ethiopia.
Other languages like Somali, Oromo, and various Nilotic languages are spoken.
5. Southern Africa:
English is often spoken as a second language due to colonial influence in countries like South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Zambia.
Afrikaans is spoken in South Africa and Namibia.
Local languages like Zulu, Xhosa, and Sotho are widely spoken.
These language distributions can vary within countries, and there are often multiple languages spoken within each region due to the diversity of cultures and ethnic groups present.
Conclusion
The EAC appears to be leading the way in terms of achieving regional integration among the current regional economic blocks. The EAC has successfully eliminated all non-trade barriers, EAC members can travel visa-free in EAC countries, EAC member states appear to all share similar cultural heritage and most speak Swahili, the EAC has muted implementing a single currency in the region to facilitate intra-regional trade. This is a shining example for the rest of the continent on how to achieve regional integration! The video in the link below illustrates just how they are doing it!
Africa is a continent rich in mineral resources, and it is known for its vast deposits of various valuable minerals. The continent’s mineral wealth has played a significant role in shaping its history, economy, and geopolitics. Some of the key minerals found in Africa include:
Gold: Africa is one of the leading producers of gold in the world. South Africa, Ghana, Mali, and Tanzania are among the top gold-producing countries on the continent. Gold mining has been a major economic activity for many African nations and has contributed to their GDP and foreign exchange earnings.
Diamonds: Africa is also a major source of diamonds, particularly from countries like Botswana, South Africa, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Diamonds have been a significant source of revenue for these countries but have also been associated with issues of conflict, illegal mining, and human rights abuses in some regions.
Copper: Countries such as Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo hold vast copper reserves. Copper mining has been crucial for their economies, but challenges like resource mismanagement and corruption have also affected the sector.
Platinum: South Africa is a dominant producer of platinum, a precious metal widely used in industrial applications, especially in the automotive and chemical industries.
Cobalt: The Democratic Republic of Congo is the world’s largest producer of cobalt, which is a crucial component in batteries used for electric vehicles and various electronic devices.
Iron Ore: Africa has substantial iron ore reserves, with countries like Mauritania, South Africa, and Algeria possessing significant deposits. Iron ore is essential for the production of steel, a vital material for construction and industrial activities.
Uranium: Several African countries, including Niger and Namibia, have significant uranium deposits, which are crucial for nuclear energy production.
Bauxite: Guinea is a major supplier of bauxite, the primary ore used to produce aluminum.
Phosphates: Countries like Morocco and Tunisia have large reserves of phosphates, which are used primarily in agricultural fertilizers.
The abundance of mineral resources in Africa has the potential to fuel economic growth, attract foreign investments, and provide job opportunities. However, the exploitation of these resources has often been accompanied by challenges, such as environmental degradation, political instability, and issues related to governance and corruption. Additionally, the so-called “resource curse” has affected some African countries, where mineral wealth has not always translated into sustainable development and societal progress.
Efforts are being made by some countries and international organizations to ensure responsible and sustainable mining practices and to use mineral revenues to promote socio-economic development and alleviate poverty in the region. Nonetheless, managing and leveraging Africa’s mineral wealth remains a complex and multifaceted challenge.
Focus on the Democratic Republic of Congo
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is one of the richest countries in terms of mineral resources. Its vast deposits have the potential to make it one of the wealthiest nations in Africa. However, the exploitation of these resources has also been associated with significant challenges and conflicts.
Some of the key mineral resources found in the DRC are:
Cobalt: The DRC is the world’s largest producer of cobalt, which is a critical component in the manufacturing of batteries used in electric vehicles, smartphones, and other electronic devices. Cobalt mining is concentrated in the southern part of the country, particularly in the Katanga (now Haut-Katanga, Lualaba, and Tanganyika) province.
Copper: The DRC is also a major producer of copper, with significant deposits located mainly in the Katanga province. Copper is essential for various industries, including construction, electronics, and power generation.
Diamonds: The DRC is a significant source of diamonds, particularly alluvial diamonds found in riverbeds. The country has both industrial and artisanal diamond mining. However, the diamond trade has been linked to conflicts and human rights abuses in certain regions, such as the infamous “blood diamonds” or “conflict diamonds.”
Gold: Gold is another valuable mineral found in the DRC. Gold mining takes place in various regions across the country, with a concentration in the northeastern provinces.
Coltan: The DRC holds vast reserves of coltan, a mineral containing tantalum and niobium, which is used in electronic devices like smartphones and computers. The mining of coltan has been associated with environmental degradation and conflict-driven exploitation.
Tin: Tin is also mined in the DRC and is used in various industries, including electronics and packaging.
The abundance of these mineral resources has attracted significant foreign investment in the DRC’s mining sector. However, the exploitation of these resources has been accompanied by numerous challenges:
Conflict and Instability: The mining regions in the DRC have been marred by conflicts and violence, often fueled by competition for control over valuable mineral resources. Armed groups and militias have been involved in exploiting these resources, leading to instability and humanitarian crises.
Environmental Impact: The mining activities in the DRC have resulted in significant environmental degradation, including deforestation, soil erosion, and pollution of water bodies.
Social Issues: Mining communities often face poor working conditions, human rights abuses, and challenges related to child labor and forced labor.
Governance and Corruption: The DRC has faced challenges in managing its mineral resources effectively. Corruption and mismanagement have hindered the equitable distribution of wealth and benefits from mining.
Efforts are being made to address these challenges and promote responsible and sustainable mining practices in the DRC. International initiatives, like the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme for diamonds and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), aim to ensure that mineral resources are mined and traded responsibly and that the revenues generated from mining benefit the people of the DRC. However, much work remains to be done to harness the potential of these resources for the country’s development and the well-being of its citizens.
The DRC’s secret power in addition to its mineral wealth lies in the Congo River basin – DRC’s water resources have the potential to truly accelerate Africa’s economic development and bring 500 million Africans out of poverty, building a burgeoning middle class that drives a dynamic and inclusive economy in Africa:
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) possesses significant power generation potential, primarily due to its vast hydropower resources. The DRC’s potential to generate electricity from its abundant water resources is immense and could play a crucial role in not only its own development but also in contributing to regional and continental energy needs.
Here’s a closer look at the DRC’s power generation potential and its potential contributions to Africa’s development:
Hydropower Potential: The DRC is often referred to as the “World’s Water Tower” because it is home to the Congo River Basin, which is the second-largest river basin in the world by discharge volume. This river system offers immense potential for hydropower generation due to its numerous rivers and waterfalls. The Inga Falls on the Congo River, in particular, hold great hydropower potential.
Inga Hydroelectric Complex: The Inga Hydroelectric Complex is a series of hydroelectric dams located on the Congo River. It has the potential to be one of the largest hydropower projects in the world. The complex currently consists of two operational stations, Inga 1 and Inga 2, but the envisioned project, known as Grand Inga, aims to develop a significantly larger capacity. If fully realized, Grand Inga could have the potential to generate around 40,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity, which is more than double the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam in China, currently the world’s largest.
Contribution to Development:
Domestic Electricity Supply: The DRC’s substantial hydropower potential could revolutionize its domestic electricity supply. Improved access to reliable and affordable electricity would stimulate economic growth, support industrial development, and improve the quality of life for its citizens.
Regional Energy Trade: The DRC’s surplus electricity could be exported to neighboring countries in Africa, helping to address regional energy deficits and fostering economic cooperation. Energy exports could generate revenue for the DRC while supporting the development of electricity-starved nations.
Industrialization: A consistent and abundant energy supply is crucial for industrialization. The availability of affordable electricity could attract foreign investments, particularly in energy-intensive industries, contributing to job creation and economic diversification.
Rural Electrification: Reliable electricity access in rural areas can spur agricultural and small-scale industrial activities, leading to poverty reduction and improved living conditions.
Climate Change Mitigation: Hydropower is a clean energy source with a relatively low carbon footprint. Developing hydropower in the DRC could help mitigate climate change by reducing the reliance on fossil fuels for energy generation.
Challenges and Considerations: Despite its immense potential, realizing the benefits of the DRC’s hydropower resources comes with challenges:
Infrastructure: Developing large-scale hydropower projects requires substantial infrastructure investment, including dams, transmission lines, and distribution networks.
Financing: Securing funding for such massive projects can be a challenge, requiring both domestic and international investments.
Environmental and Social Impact: The construction of large dams can have environmental and social consequences, including habitat disruption and displacement of communities.
Political and Governance Issues: The DRC’s political stability and governance affect its ability to attract and manage investments effectively.
In conclusion, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s power generation potential, especially in the form of hydropower, has the capacity to be a transformative force for both the country and the broader African continent. By addressing the challenges and implementing sustainable and responsible practices, the DRC could significantly contribute to its own development while also playing a pivotal role in meeting Africa’s growing energy demands.
The current economic impact of Africa’s minerals production
Africa is home to vast and abundant reserves of natural resources, with resources ranging from black gold popularly known as oil to large reserves of cobalt, found all across the mineral-rich lands of the Congo.
Africa is home to nearly all valuable minerals that are essential to generating wealth, producing commodities, and advancing technology. Several African nations have prospered because of their mineral resources, some more so than others.
Africa is home to approximately 30% of the world’s entire mineral reserves. While some countries rely on oil, some are rich in diamonds, and others in gold, copper, cobalt, coal, iron ore, uranium, and others. According to a research report conducted by the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper, Economist Intelligence Unit, South Africa, Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, and Libya produce more than two-thirds of Africa’s mineral wealth, owing to their large oil reserves, with the exception of South Africa, which has an abundance of gold and other precious materials.
The report also indicates that high prices for copper, oil, iron ore, aluminum, and gas will encourage investment and all are contributing to reducing external imbalances, stabilizing currencies, and boosting economic development. Commodity prices are driving an export boom across the continent.
Below are the top 10 countries in Africa that exported the largest volumes of natural resources in 2022 and as such, generated the most wealth from its abundant reserves:
Rank
Country
Predominant resources
Annual mineral production
1.
South Africa
Gold, manganese, platinum, coal & others
$124,96 billion
2.
Nigeria
Oil, iron ore, columbite & others
$52,69 billion
3.
Algeria
Hydrocarbons
$38,7 billion
4.
Angola
Diamond, Gold, Oil & others
$32,94 billion
5.
Libya
Oil, Clay, Cement, Salt & others
$27,03 billion
6.
Egypt
Gold, Copper, Silver & others
$23,22 billion
7.
Ghana
Gold, Limestone, Iron ore & others
$14,97 billion
8.
DRC
Gold, Copper, Cobalt & others
$13,69 billion
9.
Gabon
Manganese, Iron ore, Uranium & others
$10,92 billion
10.
Zimbabwe
Platinum, Chrome, Gold, Coal & others
$9,77 billion
DRC- Democratic Republic of Congo should be topping this list given the depth of the mineral reserves it possesses!Should it be allowed to formalise and develop certain key sectors like hydro-electric power generation, this could spur on the overall industralization of the country and region!
In typical geographical illustrations Africa’s true size appears somewhat distorted or scaled down. Why is this case?
The true size of the continent of Africa is approximately 30.37 million square kilometers, making it the second-largest continent in the world after Asia. The Mercator projection on a two dimensional scale, makes Greenland appear as though it is the same size as Africa, when in fact it is 14 times smaller!
The phenomenon referred to above is known as the “Mercator projection” used in many geographical publications. The Mercator projection is a cylindrical map projection that distorts the size of landmasses as they get farther from the equator. This means that areas near the poles are significantly stretched out, making them appear much larger than they actually are.
As a result, continents like Africa, which is closer to the equator, are often portrayed smaller on Mercator maps compared to their true size. This distortion has been criticized for perpetuating a Eurocentric view of the world, as it tends to emphasize the size of regions closer to the North Pole, such as Europe and North America, while downplaying the size of regions near the equator, like Africa and South America.
Mercator projection and how it visually distorts land surfaces from 3D to 2D
To provide a more accurate representation of the sizes and shapes of continents, other map projections, like the Robinson projection or the Winkel Tripel projection, are used in some publications. These projections attempt to balance the distortion of size, shape, and direction, giving a more realistic depiction of the Earth’s surface. However, no map projection can perfectly represent the three-dimensional Earth on a flat surface without some form of distortion.
The earth as viewed from space, illustrating the sheer enormity of the African continent!
A more accurate representation of the world in two dimensions would appear as illustrated in the map below. This shows that Africa is enormous relative to the territories in the North and with its sizeable, youthful population, and if by some miracle it could re-unite and adopt an integrated approach in managing its resources, Africa could become a true force to be reckoned with in the global geopolitical arena!
Welcome to Southern Point Online, your repository for all things Digital and how to thrive in a rapidly digitalized world!
The World has been transformed by the internet in the past 25 years and is set for a new revolution with internet 2.0!
The name Southern Point is inspired by the location of its founding company, at the southern most tip of the African continent in South Africa!
The mission of this Blog is to initiate and sustain a global conversation about Africa and her place in the World!
Some key aspects that will be interrogated in quite some depth will include:
What could a united Africa look like, meaning an Africa that is united in purpose and function, particularly one in which Africa is in full control of her own resources within the global economy? In this segment we will seek to understand how and why Africa is where it is today and what Africans can do for themselves to leverage her sheer size, resources and youthful population to build a better Africa! A better and integrated Africa is not only good for Africa but also has the potential to create the next China which can only benefit the rest of the World.
If Africa is so poor, why then is the whole world so interested in it? There are significant vested external interests which influence Africa’s standing in the world, for instance the so-called FRANCOPHONE ‘independant’ states in Africa are still in this day and age sending billions of dollars to France -‘for what’? Dr Arikana Chihombori Quao a Zimbabwean born medical doctor, diplomat and activist shares some very astonishing views on ‘the continued colonization of 14 western African states by France’. This followed her dismissal in 2019 from her role as an African Union representative to the US.
Africa is now a continent made up of 55 ‘sovereign states’, whereas historically, prior to The Scramble for Africa, Africa was a single territory with many tribes spread across its vast and expansive terrain. Isn’t a Borderless Africa the best structural formation to build lasting continental integration? Does Africa not need to find herself again in order to truly realize her full potential and be a real participant in the global economy?
Longest suspension bridge in Africa connecting Maputo City to Katembe in Mozambique developed and 85% financed by China’s Exim Bank at cost of $1bn.
There are concerns being raised about the quality of the deals being entered into by the African states with China and how China implements these infrastructure projects given that they typically use their own labour and do not transfer any skills to locals for the ongoing maintenance of these infrastructure.
China is providing significant amounts of the financing for these projects and there are further concerns that a lot of these African nations will not be able to service the debt linked to these projects, meaning they will ultimately become beholden to China who will then take out a disproportionate amount of African resources to China when these nations inevitably default on the loans.
How can Africa use technology to catch-up with the rest of the World and participate in the Global Economy on an equal footing? Certain technologies have enabled Africa to leapfrog some developmental steps, as was seen with the rapid expansion of cellular technology on the continent in the past 25 years.
Africa historically did not have well developed fixed telecommunications infrastructure, thereafter from the mid-1990s mobile telecommunications infrastructure was developed and today connects 747 million Africans in sub-Saharan Africa. This number is expected to reach 1 billion connections by 2025 according to ZDnet.
Emerging technologies in Fintech and Blockchain are well positioned to break down more barriers to entry and accelerate financial inclusion riding of the telecoms revolution with the mobile device being at the center of the next wave!
SPO will focus on trying to find answers to the above questions and will explore in quite some detail the history that has brought Africa to its current state and then try to encourage Africans to work together to craft a better future for its people, not withstanding the past. The main focus will be forward looking and positive!
If Africa is added to BRICS this block would represent almost 4 billion people, which is half of global population today at roughly 8,04 billion!
The Vision – ‘A Borderless Africa’
South Africa was admitted as a full member to the then BRIC block in 2010 at the BRIC Foreign Ministers meeting in New York. Brazil, Russia, India and China probably realised that that the formation which was established on 16 June 2009, needed Africa representation in its ranks, adding a near 1,4 billion more people to an economic block that is now challenging the status quo in terms of global financial system.
BRICS and Africa demographics and GDP information 2023:
As a continent Africa fits right in with BRICS and can accelerate its growth through effective implementation of AfCFTA as part of Agenda 2063!
Relatively speaking in terms of population or GDP, SA does not fit in with this group on its own. However, by virtue of being the most advanced or industrialised economy in Africa, SA is well positioned as a gateway to the rest of the African continent, and continues to use its seat on the now BRICS formation to represent the entire continent. In this blog we argue for the inclusion of the entire continent in the BRICS block!
The potential for Africa within the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is significant due to Africa’s youthful demographic, vast natural resources, and potential for economic growth. Leveraging these factors could lead to increased trade, investment, and cooperation within the BRICS framework, contributing to the overall development of the region and the member countries. However, challenges such as infrastructure deficits and political stability need to be addressed to fully realize this potential.
How Africa can benefit and contribute to inclusion in BRICS?
Africa can leverage on the financing capacity of BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) to fund infrastructure needed to facilitate the implementation of Africa’s Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is meant to accelerate integration of Africa to drive intra-Africa trade, including free movement of people and goods, investment in power generation infrastructure to drive industrialisation and improve the lives of Africans.
AfCFTA forms part of the AU’s Agenda 2063 which has the ultimate goal of uniting Africa, dismantling the artificial barriers imposed on Africa by former colonial masters. Africa can also gain access to further capital from private sector investments from sovereign wealth funds of BRICS nations, such as the China Investment Corporation (CIC).
Africa has a wealth of mineral resources to offer, which under the new structures must be beneficiated or processed at source to enhance their value to the countries who own the resources, while also creating jobs. The finished products would be utilised in global trade, contributing to national revenue accounts, enhancing the ability of Africa to repay development debts. Africa’s youthful population must be educated to create the workforce needed to drive an industrialised Africa, with a focus on sectors such as large scale Agriculture, Hydro electric power, Mining and other industrial scale processing of finished goods in a greening economy.
With the BRICS assembling in South Africa from 22-24 August 2023, this may result in a further shift away from the dependence on the current Western-led global financial system which was formed at the Bretton Woods Conference 01 Jul 1944 – 22 Jul 1944. This will accelerate the pace of de-dollarization, removing the dollar as global reserve currency to create a new multi-polar world.
A world without the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency could lead to several significant changes in the global financial landscape.
Currency Multipolarity: A shift away from the dollar could result in multiple currencies, such as the euro, Chinese yuan, or even a digital currency, gaining prominence as alternatives for global transactions and reserves. This would increase the diversity of currencies used in international trade and finance.
Reduced U.S. Economic Dominance: The U.S. would likely have less influence over global monetary policy and economic conditions. Its ability to use the dollar as a tool for economic and political leverage might diminish.
Impact on Trade Balances: Countries that heavily rely on dollar-denominated transactions might need to adjust their trade strategies. Nations could be incentivized to diversify their trade partnerships and explore new markets to mitigate currency risks.
Global Financial Stability: The transition could create uncertainties in financial markets, leading to increased volatility in currency exchange rates and potentially impacting global financial stability. Nations would need to work together to manage this transition smoothly.
Trade Costs and Efficiency: A multipolar currency system might increase transaction costs and complexity due to the need for currency conversion and hedging mechanisms. However, advancements in financial technology could help mitigate some of these challenges.
Reduced Dollar Demand: The reduced demand for the dollar in international transactions could influence its value, potentially leading to depreciation. This might affect the purchasing power of dollar holders and holders of dollar-denominated assets.
Shift in Geopolitical Dynamics: The transition could impact geopolitical relationships, altering the influence and power dynamics among nations. Countries might seek closer economic ties with regions using their preferred reserve currency.
Emergence of New Financial Instruments: New financial instruments, such as international settlement systems and payment mechanisms, could emerge to facilitate cross-border transactions in a multi-currency world.
It’s important to note that any transition away from the dollar as the global reserve currency would be complex and require careful coordination among nations, institutions, and market participants to ensure stability and mitigate potential disruptions. The exact outcome would depend on the strategies adopted by various countries and their ability to adapt to the changing financial landscape.
The BRICS recognised Africa’s potential when they initially invited South Africa to join the block and Africa has a huge role to play in enabling the BRICS broader strategy to rebalance global economics for real and unconstrained growth to achieve joint prosperity of the Global South.
The days of old economy businesses dominating customer wallets by offering a variety of products to a customer and expecting blind loyalty for a brand are over! In this blog we seek to show how through smart devices customers have a myriad of options to access products and services from their smart mobile devices. This means that companies need to unblock the ’closed loop’ within which they operate and become more ‘interoperable’.
Interoperability – the ability of computer systems or software to exchange and make use of information.”interoperability between devices made by different manufacturers”
We will look at two examples from two sectors (banking and telecommunications) that I am familiar with. Firstly, in banking the strategy is always to lock in customers by making sure that they have a primary banking account with the bank, where their salary gets deposited, to generate transactional banking fees. Then, the best product to lock-in a customer for the long-term is to offer a (20-30 year) mortgage bond for the purchase of the first and in most cases the only family home, generating interest income. Vehicle finance is another sticky product ensuring interest income for 3 to 6 years.
Personal loans, Credit and Debit cards make up a number of other products where banks earn fees all within a ’closed-loop’ operating environment. Interestingly the internal systems architecture in most of these traditional banks is not integrated with the various product lines running in a siloed structure, meaning the backend systems don’t always speak to each other – a nightmare for the user having to navigate across the various bank products. In fact every time the customer wants to apply for a new product or service, its like starting or initiating the relationship with the bank from scratch including completing cumbersome application forms, because the internal systems are not linked or interoperable!
The customer cannot use products from a competing bank, without incurring excessive additional charges. Granted, at a B to B level banks are interoperable with each other through Saswitch and the Central Bank, however at C to C level interaction is not encouraged or is penalized creating a number of closed loops.
Consumers now have access to new more open platforms via smart devices offered by the emerging Fintech sector which will completely disrupt all the above offerings (see more about this in a previous blog about how Fintech is changing banking and finance forever). Fintech’s are built to operate in a more open nature which is cost effective to the customer, even though they initially need to plug into or partner with banks and telco’s to access user bases.
We previously also took a detailed look at the History and Future of money in two other blogs, which all do not paint a very promising picture for the future of banking, unless the sector can somehow adapt and become more customer focused and less product focused or create products that address specific customer pain points, be more interoperable at the consumer level and fully digitally capable the future for traditional banking looks bleak!
IOT explained!
Secondly, in the traditional telecommunications environment a telco puts up infrastructure, an expansive mobile telecommunications network spending billions of dollars in Capex annually and links users to this network via a subscriber identification module (better know as a SIM card) in a ‘closed-loop’ environment. The main products in this model include airtime to make voice calls, data for digital communications and SMS or short message messaging service for sending messages (limited to 140 characters). In the traditional telco model if a user is subscribed to one service he does not have access to services on a rival network.
The telecommunications environment has developed quite rapidly over the past 25 years however it needs to evolve even faster to remain relevant as big tech (Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple) have developed more agile technologies that are more interoperable and they are quickly taking over telco user bases offering many more options for products and services easily accessible where there is a broadband wireless connection.
Mobile applications are designed to work across different devices manufactured by competing manufacturers. Services like WhatsApp have completely taken over mobile communications and information sharing as they enable quick and instantaneous communication and the sharing of large documents, making traditional telco services look like using snail mail to send important messages.
Telco’s unlike Banks, who do not have a clear path forward do have an opportunity to remain relevant in the new world economy provided they can rapidly transform to a digital telco leveraging off their position of providing the infrastructure that links our devices in a more interoperable world. In our blog on 5G we look at how telcos are at the forefront of the next and largest infrastructure replacement cycle as they role out 5G infrastructure globally. Places like China appear to be leading the 5G race as many cities there are already running on 5G.
IoT is the actual implementation of the much talked about convergence of platforms technologies, and devices with mobile devices (i.e. phones, tablets and wearables) at the center of it all. The video below looks at some of the top IoT projects of 2020 to give more of a feel for what is currently happening in this space.
In this blog we will briefly get an introduction to Artificial Intelligence its attributes and real world application. AI is already changing and disrupting the way in which many jobs or functions that are currently performed by human beings, automating these using data analytics and computation. Many technology companies today, namely Google, Facebook, Uber to name a few are using the vast amounts of data gathered daily from users to predict how users of their services will act or react to various stimuli to drive certain behaviors, engagement and purchasing decisions.
Artificial Intelligence
AI is typically defined as the ability of a machine to perform cognitive functions we associate with human minds, such as perceiving, reasoning, learning and problem solving. Examples of technologies that enable AI to solve business problems are robotics and autonomous vehicles, computer vision, language, virtual agents, and machine learning.
Machine Learning
Most recent advances in AI have been achieved by applying machine learning to very large data sets. Machine learning algorithims detect patterns and learn how to make predictions and recommendation by processing data and experiences, rather than by receiving explicit programming instruction. The algorithms also adapt in response to new data and experiences to improve efficacy over time.
Deep learning
Deep learning is a type of machine learning that can process a wider range of data resources, requires less data preprocessing by humans, and can often produce more accurate results than traditional machine-learning approaches. In deep learning, interconnected layers of software-based calculators known as “neurons” from a neural network. The network can ingest vast amounts of input data and process them through multiple layers that learn increasingly complex features of the data at each layer. The network can then make a determination about the data, learn if its determination is correct, and use what it has learned to make determinations about new data. For example, once it learns what an object looks like, it can recognize the object in a new image.
AI holds great promise for how the world will function as soon complete interconnected networks that link humans with machines/computers/devices mature, however this comes with some potential hazards. What happens if these AI enabled networks/machines eventually become smarter than human beings? The below video explores where the world is headed with this game changing technology..
Why AI now?
A convergence of algorithmic advances, data proliferation, and tremendous increases in computing power and storage has propelled AI from hype to reality. A simple example is the computational power that people walk around with everyday in their smart phone devices. As long as these users have access to an internet connection, there is no limit to the amount of computational capabilities and the ability to transact and interact globally. AI is going to take these capabilities to the next level linking humans to devices, vehicles and any infrastructure linked to neural networks.
In this article we will take a closer look at how emerging financial technologies are set to disrupt banking and finance as we know these key sectors of the global economy forever. These multi-trillion dollar sectors are critical and touch all our lives daily.
Fintech is portmanteau of the terms “finance” and “technology” and refers to any business that uses technology to enhance or automate financial services and processes. The term is a broad and rapidly growing industry serving both consumers and businesses.
Fintech is rapidly addressing the problem of a lack of financial inclusion, particularly in under-developed regions like Africa, where consumers have embraced financial technologies which enable payments via mobile devices. The clearest and most obvious use case for Fintech’s is in the payments space (including cross border remittances)
“The lack of financial inclusion is inhibiting growth in Africa” and other under-developed regions of the World
The remittance market is inefficient and is ripe for disruption by ‘The blockchain’ and Fintech
Cost to users is still too high (on average pay 18% commission to MTO’s),
Bank account is still required – $60 average transaction (informal channels thriving as a result)
Too many middlemen, delays in delivery (2-5 days) and lack of security and privacy
Significant unbanked population presents a huge opportunity
Fintech companies are building a digital services market place on the African continent leveraging off significant mobile penetration which has grown over the past 25 years to over 70%. The Blockchain will further enhance the ability for consumers to make payments and transact seamlessly from peer to peer, without the need for a trusted third party to facilitate transactions across borders (globally) 24 hours day, 7 days a week.
According to World Bank estimates, remittances totalled US$573 billion in 2019 globally, of which US$422 billion went to developing countries that involved 250 million migrant workers.
It’s clear for all to see how Fintech’s through networks like the Blockchain will completely dis-intermediate many existing financial services providers enabling faster, cheaper and more secure movement of money from person to person and company to person’s globally. The image below clear illustrates the depth of the disruption that will occur in the various sectors within financial services.
The Fintech ecosystem is one of the fastest developing sectors globally receiving significant venture capital funding and is illustrated in the image below.
248 companies across 10 categories, with combined funding amount of $3.4bn
Square is emerging as a major Fintech firm in the US, although India and China are leading globally in Fintech adoption!
About once every 10 years, the world goes through a major wireless infrastructure build- out. In the 1990s, it was second-generation (2G) technology. In the 2000s, it was third- generation (3G) technology. And in the 2010s, it’s been fourth-generation (4G) wireless technology. Now wireless networks are transitioning again to fifth-generation (5G) wireless technology.
5G is more than just another so-so wireless network upgrade. 5G speeds will be, on average, 100 times faster than the 4G speeds we use today. Today, most 4G wireless networks can achieve networks speeds of 100 megabits per second (Mbps). With those speeds, it would take you about five minutes to download an HD movie from the internet. That’s not too bad. The above mentioned development is illustrated in the table below.
1G
2G
3G
4G
5G
1981
1992
2001
2010
2020
2 Kbps
64 Kbps
2 Mbps
100 Mbps
10 GBPs
Basic voice service using analog protocols
Designed primarily for voice using the digital standards (GSMI, CDMA)
First mobile broadband utilizing IP protocols (WCDMA/ CDMA2000)
True mobile broadband on a unified standard (LTE)
“Tactile internet’ with service aware devices and fibre like speeds
Evolution of a Wireless Network
We are witnessing the largest, most significant communications infrastructure build-out the world has ever seen. The estimated cost: $2 trillion. But the investment is well worth it. I’m referring to the build-out of the 5G wireless network. If you have a modern smartphone in the U.S. – or anywhere in the developed world, for that matter – it’s likely that you’re using a fourth-generation (4G) wireless network.
But look at the 5G speeds. 5G will deliver speeds up to 10 gigabits per second (Gbps). That’s 100 times faster than 4G. Again, not 100% faster, 100 times faster. Do you know how long it would take you to download that same HD movie with 5G? It would take just 20 seconds. Incredible. With 5G, online voice and video calls will be crystal clear. Slow-loading web pages and dropped calls will be a thing of the past.
With the increased network speeds, some previously “sci-fi” technology becomes very real.
Fleets of self-driving semitrucks will roll down the highway, connected in real time to an experienced driver who can take over at a moment’s notice.
Doctors will operate on patients thousands of miles away thanks to robotic surgery equipment connected to a lightning-fast 5G network.
And one day, you might “holo- commute” to work. Thanks to the speeds of 5G, a holographic projection could stand in for you at your next meeting. All told, 5G will usher in more than $12 trillion in wealth. 5G isn’t just evolutionary. It’s revolutionary. And it represents one of the best investing opportunities of this decade.
Three Phases of the 5G Boom The 5G rollout will come in three phases.
Phase One: The Infrastructure Phase As we speak, mobile network providers are spending billions of dollars to erect and maintain wireless network infrastructure. Phase One will make a few successful companies billions of dollars.
Right now, there are more than 7,200 5G deployments across the globe. And that number is going up daily. Countries like South Korea and Switzerland already have live 5G networks covering more than half the population.China, which is the world’s second largest economy, is seeing a noticeable uptick in 5G activity.
A recent JPMorgan report found that Chinese telecom carriers saw an increase of 5G base stations being deployed in 2020. This wasn’t a small increase… Previous estimates had 130,000 new base stations going live this year. Now that number is between 600,000 and 800,000 base stations. That’s five times more base stations than anticipated. Almost every American state has some form of 5G up and running.
The Second Phase of 5G – The Largest Consumer Electronics Replacement Cycle in History – Jeff Brown
Phase Two: The Devices Phase We are already well into Phase One. That means it’s time for Phase Two. That’s when billions of smartphone users around the world will upgrade to a 5G-enabled smartphone.
This is where the 5G experience starts to hit the mainstream. Mobile devices that we all use every day, like smartphones and tablets, will soon be 5G capable. And once that happens… and the masses understand just how game-changing 5G wireless speeds are… billions of now obsolete devices will need to be upgraded to take advantage. We are currently entering Phase Two. Later this year, 5G-enabled devices like the 5G iPhone will go up for sale.
Phase Three: The Services Phase After the world has upgraded to 5G-enabled devices, we will move into Phase Three of the 5G rollout. This is the stage when companies will begin offering services that take advantage of 5G speeds.
Think of things like virtual reality, self-driving cars, robotic surgery, and even holographic telepresence. I predict we will begin to enter Phase Three in early 2021. But by now, I’m sure you likely have a question on your mind: Will COVID-19 slow down the rollout of 5G? Absolutely not. In fact, COVID-19 has actually sped up the rollout of 5G. COVID-19 Is Breaking the Internet. Numbers coming out confirm what we already knew to be the case – COVID-19 slowing down the internet.
Nokia just released data saying that most wireless networks around the world see 30– 45% growth in traffic over a year. But peak usage jumped 20–40% in just four weeks during the COVID-19 lockdowns. These numbers are beyond crazy. And it’s all because people are staying home. Videoconferencing traffic – for both work and socializing – spiked 300%. Gaming traffic exploded 400%… probably because the kids are staying home from school.
To put this growth in context, network data traffic would more than double every 12 months if this persists. We are talking about the definition of exponential growth. And it will overwhelm networks all over the world.
As a result, data centers are building out additional infrastructure, as are wireless carriers. And the European Union (EU) has gone so far as to ask companies like Netflix, Disney+, Zoom, and Facebook to reduce the quality of their video. The EU hopes this will relieve some of the strain on its networks.
And here’s the big takeaway – the world needs 5G now more than ever. Any company producing the products used by data centers, wireless networks, and 5G infrastructure is getting slammed with new orders as we speak. For these companies, sales are going up, not down. Phase Two, the devices phase. The smartphone in your pocket will soon be obsolete. Every single mobile phone, all 3.5 billion of them, will have to be replaced.
But first, just a bit of background… 5G wireless technology is the most significant development in wireless technology since the first generation in the 1980s. 5G wireless technology is not evolutionary; it is revolutionary. 5G wireless networks will operate over different radio frequency (RF) spectrum. Because of this, 3G and 4G phones – the phones you and I use every day – simply will not work on 5G networks. That means that every single smartphone in the world will have to be replaced in order to access 5G wireless services. This will be the largest consumer electronics replacement cycle in history.
And the market is perfectly primed for it. Smartphone models over the last three years have been largely the same. Except for the addition of 3D-sensing technology, each successive smartphone generation has only been moderately better than the previous generation. A bit more memory, a faster processor, better quality resolution in the camera, but nothing revolutionary. Nothing to cause consumers to rush out and upgrade their phones. And it shows in the numbers.
Back in 2007 when the very first iPhone was released, consumers replaced their mobile phones, on average, about once every 19 months. From 2007 through 2014, this replacement cycle remained under two years. But take a look at the numbers for 2020. Today, consumers are holding onto their smartphones for nearly 34 months. That’s almost three entire years without a new smartphone.
To my earlier point, there just hasn’t been enough reason for consumers to upgrade their phones. The new phones just don’t do much more than the old phones. We have been waiting for something big… and that something is 5G.
For Africa this new revolution presents another opportunity to enable Africa to catch up with the rest of the world in digital transformation provided that large parts of Africa are able to keep up in the wide scale infrastructure roll-out that is underway. The second significant barrier to entry for Africans is availability of cheaper 5G enabled devices, which will be crucial in the wide scale replacement cycle the industry is about to enter into.
The Blockchain is an internet based technology that is set to change money, business and the World as we know it forever! The protocol forming the basis behind the systems architecture and operation of Bitcoin and other crypto currencies is designed to enable peer to peer transactions without the need for a trusted third party ‘intermediary’. This technology can be applied in various sectors including Banking and Finance, Real Estate, Telecommunications, Law, Governance (voting) among other sectors.
What is Blockchain?
The Blockchain is not just a protocol to run Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and is a robust and a multi-dimensional platform which can be utilized in a very wide variety of disciplines and is set to disrupt at least 19 Industries. The video below evaluates these industries and how they will be disrupted:
Blockchain will disrupt the ‘status quo’ in many sectors shifting power from institutions to people
The financial services sector typically makes up a significant proportion of any countries economy which includes banks, investment firms, and insurance companies. According to Investopedia the market estimates believe that by 2022, the financial services market is expected to reach $26.5 trillion, growing at a rate of 6% during the forecast period. Asia Pacific is the largest financial sector globally, followed by North America. The video below analyses how this sector will be disrupted by new blockchain technologies and fintech!
For emerging economies particularly those with a high proportion of unbanked populations especially in Africa, blockchain technology presents a significant opportunity to accelerate financial inclusion. The free movement of funds within this economies will help to uplift the lives of many citizens in impoverished nations enabling them to start to engage and move up in the hierarchy of needs.
The remittance market which is a $600bn-plus business globally is currently dominated by money transfer companies like Western Union and Moneygram and commercial banks among others who take days to fulfill transfers and also charge exorbitant transactional/commission fees are prime targets of this transformational technology. Through the blockchain users will be able send money to anyone in the world without the need for these intermediaries putting most of the above quoted money back in the pockets of the senders and receivers of the remittances with near real time delivery.
