What does the expansion mean for global geopolitics?
The 15th BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg South Africa from 22-24 August 2023, attended by over 60 heads of state, from Africa, Middle-east, Asia, and South America, concluded with some noteworthy outcomes. Six new members were admitted to the bloc, with many more having shown keen interest to join, as illustrated in the diagram above.
The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), originally established in 2009, was already a group of major emerging economies. The inclusion of Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Argentina, Egypt, and Ethiopia into BRICS will likely have significant implications for the global geopolitical arena. It could potentially expand the influence and reach of the group, altering the balance of power in international relations. This new configuration could impact economic cooperation, trade dynamics, regional stability, and negotiations on global issues.
We take a closer look at the newly configured grouping and analyze its likely intentions and the prospects of its success.
| Item No. | Country | Population (millions) | GDP (trillions) (nominal) | GDP Growth (%) | Oil production (‘000s barrels per day) | Exports of Goods ($ billions) |
| 1. | China | 1,425 | $19,37 | 5,6% | 4,111 | $3,594 |
| 2. | India | 1,428 | $3,73 | 6,1% | 737 | $453 |
| 3. | Brazil | 0,216 | $2,06 | 1,7% | 3,107 | $334 |
| 4. | Russia | 0,144 | $2,08 | 4,9% | 11,202 | $532 |
| 5. | S. Africa | 0,060 | $0,407 | 0,3% | 0 | $123 |
| 6. | Saudi Arabia | 0,037 | $1,06 | 1,9% | 12,136 | $410 |
| 7. | Iran | 0,089 | $0,376 | 2,5% | 3,822 | $73 |
| 8. | UAE | 0,0095 | $0,495 | 3,0% | 4,022 | $599 |
| 9. | Argentina | 0,045 | $0,641 | 5,2% | 706 | $88 |
| 10. | Egypt | 0,112 | $0,477 | 4,2% | 613 | $49 |
| 11. | Ethiopia | 0,126 | $0,156 | 5,8% | 0 | $3.9 |
| Total | 3,691 | $30,852 | – | 40,456 | $6,258 |
The BRICS+ population totals 3,7 billion which represents approximately 46% of Global population, with the rest of the World on 4,3 billion making up the remaining 54%. The BRICS GDP of $30,9 trillion represents 30% of the global total, with the Rest of the World generating $74 trillion in nominal terms. The BRICS 40,4 million barrels of oil production represents 43,1% of global production, with the Rest of the World producing 53,3 million barrels a day. And, on $6,258 billion, the BRICs are exporting 25,1% of global output, versus $18,646 billion for the Rest of the World.
What is the significance of this first round of admissions into the BRICS bloc, which is set to be followed by further recruiting rounds at future BRICS summits? There are up to 40 nations who have declared their intention to join BRICS in future, and among them includes nations like Algeria, Nigeria, Venezuela, DRC and Kazakhstan, all of whom are well endowed with oil, gas and uranium in the case of the latter. Kazakhstan holds the worlds largest deposits of Uranium. In the case of DRC, Cobalt and Copper and the abundance of water resources with significant Hydro power potential.
The BRICS bloc is set to control current and future energy markets with BRICS+ also possessing many of the minerals needed for furture green economies, such as Lithium, Cobalt and Copper found in abundance in countries like Argentina and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The famous quote below by Henry Kissinger encapsulates what may be the intent!
The next stage of the tectonic geopolitical shifts is complete de-dolarization, which we will look into in detail in the next blog. In 1973, the petrodollar system was created through a deal between the US and Saudi Arabia. The countries agreed to price and trade oil in US dollars. With oil standardized in terms of dollars, any country that purchased oil from Saudi Arabia would have to use dollars.